Turning Point Brands is doubling down on nicotine pouches, and the numbers are starting to look like a bet the market is willing to take. The company has sharply raised its full-year 2026 outlook for its Modern Oral segment and laid out an aggressive retail rollout aimed at putting its FRE and ALP brands in front of dramatically more shoppers by year-end.
TPB now expects 2026 Modern Oral gross sales of $280 million to $300 million, up from a previous range of $220 million to $240 million, and net sales of $210 million to $225 million, up from a previous range of $180 million to $190 million. At the midpoint, that’s roughly 84% gross revenue growth — a number that signals real conviction from management that the category’s first-quarter momentum can be sustained through the rest of the year. TipRanks
That first quarter was the catalyst. Modern Oral gross sales surged 167% and segment net sales rose 133% to $52 million, with the category now accounting for 42% of total company net sales versus 21% a year earlier. Consolidated sales climbed 17% year over year to $124.3 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $25.9 million coming in above the midpoint of the company’s guidance. Investing.com
The retail strategy is where the new guidance gets concrete. Management expects chain store count to increase by approximately 70% by the end of 2026, supported by recent national and regional convenience chain wins. Those wins are already being staged for rollout, with stores expected to begin filling in within weeks and continue through the balance of the year. The plan is essentially to convert in-quarter velocity into a much larger shelf footprint before the year closes. Yahoo Finance
Funding that push is not cheap. TPB plans to deploy $80 million to $105 million in sales and marketing during 2026 to support distribution and consumer trial. A meaningful slice of that spend is going into a TKO Group partnership covering UFC, Zuffa Boxing, and Professional Bull Riders — a marketing footprint clearly designed to put FRE and ALP in front of the same male-skewing, sports-watching demographic that has been driving pouch adoption broadly. The Globe and Mail
There’s a longer-term capital story underneath the retail push too. The company is building a Louisville manufacturing facility to localize production, which management expects to improve supply-chain control and trim freight and tariff exposure as Modern Oral volumes scale. Gross margins in the segment are projected to approach 70% by the end of the decade as that domestic manufacturing leverage compounds.
The trade-off, as TPB’s executives openly acknowledged on the call, is near-term margin pressure. Net income declined 19% in Q1, and the legacy Zig-Zag segment is shrinking even as Stoker’s continues to anchor the business. Management has framed 2026 explicitly as an investment year — front-loading distribution and brand spend now to capture pouch share while the category is still being defined. With ZYN dominant at the top and a wave of challenger brands competing for the rest of the shelf, TPB is signaling that it wants to be one of the two or three brands that survives the shakeout.
